When the 2026 MXGP season began in Argentina, the question was whether Lucas Coenen — rookie by title, veteran by talent — could survive the step up to the premier class. Through seven rounds, including double GP wins in France and Germany, the question has been answered. Now a different one is being asked: can anyone stop him?
Thirty-one points is not an insurmountable gap. Jeffrey Herlings has erased larger deficits in his career. Romain Febvre won a world title on Kawasaki last year and knows better than anyone how championships shift in the European summer swing. The title is not settled. But the shape of the fight is becoming clear.
#1 — Lucas Coenen
The Red Plate Is His To Lose
Lucas Coenen was supposed to be a wildcard. At 20 years old, stepping up from MX2 where he was a dominant force, the expectation was for growing pains — a few podiums, some bad motos, a learning year. Instead, he swept the MXGP of Andalucia in the season's second round, won the sand of Sardegna, and through seven GPs has not once failed to reach the podium in an overall result.
At Teutschenthal for Round 7, the Germany GP, Coenen was the fastest rider on track in both motos. He won convincingly — again — posting the fastest lap in Moto 2 by nearly two seconds. His racecraft under pressure has been the revelation of the year: when challenged deep into a moto, he finds another gear that nobody else in the field appears to have access to.
The most impressive aspect of Coenen's championship lead is how it was built. He hasn't needed to rely on others' misfortune. He hasn't survived crashes that handed him points. He has simply been the best rider at six of seven rounds, consistent where it counts and clinical when the pressure is highest. The red plate belongs to him on merit.
"He doesn't look like a rookie for a single lap. That's the most unsettling part."
— MXGP paddock observation after Teutschenthal#2 — Jeffrey Herlings
The Bullet With A New Gun
Jeffrey Herlings is 30 years old, a six-time world champion, and he switched manufacturers this winter for the first time in his professional career. After 16 years on KTM — the only bike he has ever raced at factory level — he signed with Honda HRC Petronas. At the time, it felt seismic. Now, watching him from the outside, it looks inevitable.
Herlings on the Honda CRF450RW has not missed a beat. He went second overall in Argentina, held the red plate briefly in the championship's early rounds, and through seven GPs has been the only rider consistently capable of following Coenen's pace. In France, he went 1–1 behind Coenen's 1–1, finishing second overall. In Germany, he was the fastest Honda in both motos.
The 31-point gap to Coenen is real, but Herlings has been in worse positions before. In 2018 he came back from a shattered ankle to win the championship. In 2022 he returned from a hip injury mid-season and nearly stole the title in the final round. His championship pedigree is not a talking point — it is a genuine psychological weapon. Coenen has never won a world title under pressure. Herlings has won six.
"31 points with 12 rounds left. Herlings has eaten bigger gaps than that for breakfast."
— Moto, Moto AnalysisThe Honda switch matters in one specific way: Herlings needed something to prove again. KTM had become routine. The Honda is a different machine — better in some conditions, still being dialed in others — and the challenge of making it work has clearly energized him. He is riding with the hunger of a man with something to prove, not the comfort of a dominant factory incumbent.
#3 — Romain Febvre
The Champion Who Will Not Be Forgotten
Enter the reigning world champion. Romain Febvre started 2026 as the man to beat — the first Kawasaki rider to win the premier class title, fresh off his second world championship a decade after his first. He enters Round 8 third in the standings, 81 points back, with the look of a man who has found his rhythm at exactly the right time.
Febvre won the MXGP of Germany. Not scraped it, not survived it — won it with authority in Moto 1, posting the second-fastest lap of the day behind Coenen and holding off pressure from multiple riders across a demanding circuit. It was his first GP victory of the 2026 season and a statement: the defending champion is awake, and he is coming.
At 31, Febvre is the veteran presence in this three-man fight. He has been world champion. He knows what it takes to hold a championship lead and to chase one down. The 81-point gap is steep — roughly four full GP victories' worth of net points — but Febvre has 12 rounds to work with, and the championship is known to compress in the second half of the European season as tracks become familiar and form converges.
Kawasaki has given Febvre a machine capable of winning anywhere. The KX450-SR — the same spec that carried him to the title last year — remains one of the best-handling motorcycles in the paddock on hard-pack European circuits. If Coenen and Herlings trade blows and points, Febvre is the man positioned to benefit from every mistake that either of them makes.
Looking Ahead: Round 8, Latvia
The MXGP circus moves to Kegums, Latvia for Round 8 on June 7–8. The sandy Latvian circuit is one of the most demanding on the calendar — a true endurance test across two motos in notoriously unpredictable Baltic conditions. Herlings has historically excelled in sand. Febvre won here in 2025. Coenen won in Sardegna's sand earlier this year.
Nobody has an obvious edge. That is what makes this championship worth watching. Twelve rounds to go, three men with legitimate claims, and the gap close enough that a single mechanical DNF or a collision in traffic could reset the entire picture. MXGP 2026 is not over. It is just beginning.